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Going from Chicago to Duluth of the North: Thunder Bay’s Economy in the Past, Present, and Future

Livio Di Matteo  Lake Superior News
#LSN_Econ

THUNDER BAY, ONTARIO  -  October 16, 2018  (LSN) Thunder Bay’s economy has seen ebbs and flows over the course of the last 150 years.  Key to its economic development was the federal government decision to route the Canadian Pacific Railway through the Lakehead and the arrival of the transcontinental railway in the 1880s.  Indeed, without this government intervention it is unlikely Thunder Bay would have developed into a city as large as it is today.  Government action in assorted forms has been one of the pillars of Thunder Bay’s economy. 

Transportation is another pillar of Thunder Bay’s economy.  During the first decade of the twentieth century, there was a massive boom rooted in infrastructure building for the transport needs of the western Canadian grain economy that saw the twin Lakehead cities of Port Arthur and Fort William become the largest grain port in the world.  At its peak, over 30 grain terminals lined the waterfront.  Indeed, growth was so rapid that many believed the Lakehead would become the Chicago of the North.  Population quadrupled between 1901 and 1911 and the real per capita value of new construction was never higher than during this period.

Yet, as the twentieth century wore on, there was growing realization that as well as Thunder Bay was doing, it was not going to be the Chicago of the North.  The remainder of the twentieth century saw continued but slower growth and Thunder Bay’s ultimate evolution was more akin to Duluth Minnesota – the American Lakehead – rather than Chicago.  Thunder Bay’s economic growth slowed in the wake of World War I and the Great Depression and resumed during the resource boom of the 1950s and 1960s.  Indeed, natural resource extraction and processing whether forestry or mining have always been another pillar of Thunder Bay’s economy.

Port Arthur and Fort William amalgamated to form Thunder Bay in 1970.  After 1970, labor saving technological change, a shift in world grain markets and increasing international competition eroded the competitiveness of Thunder Bay’s grain transport and forestry sectors culminating in the forest sector crisis, which saw substantial job losses in Thunder Bay and the surrounding region.  These job losses were aggravated by high energy costs with respect to electricity.  Total employment in Thunder Bay has never recovered from the peaks reached in the first years of the twenty first century.

In the wake of the forest sector crisis, recent years have seen a stabilization of the Thunder Bay economy and a shift in its composition towards employment in research, regional health and social services, and higher education.   This base continues to support a growing range of retail and service activities particularly in hospitality and accommodation.  Nevertheless, economic growth has been slower compared to the rest of Canada and Ontario. While the unemployment rate in Thunder Bay is low, it is because the labor force has shrunk faster than employment as a result of an aging population and youth outmigration.  While the First Nation’s population has been expanding, its future economic engagement hinges on the long-term success of initiatives to expand human capital via education and training.

As for the future, tomorrow is yesterday as Thunder Bay’s economic future will still rely on its traditional three pillars – government, transportation and natural resources.  These pillars will of course make use of new knowledge and technology and will require innovative entrepreneurial vision to recognize and implement new opportunities. Thunder Bay’s transportation infrastructure and its pivotal location on the east west transport corridor, the role of regional government services and the ongoing potential of the mining sector combined with information technology and the knowledge economy will be the economic forces propelling its future.

On Saturday, Oct. 20 at 2 pm in the Brodie Resource Library Fireside Reading Room, Lakehead University’s In Conversation Talks presents Livio Di Matteo with a talk titled Going from Chicago to Duluth of the North: Thunder Bay’s Economy in the Past, Present, and Future.   Join Dr. Livio Di Matteo of Lakehead University’s Economics Department for an exciting journey that explores the foundations of Thunder Bay’s economy, its current performance and anticipated challenges for the future.

                       

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